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Veracruz vs Club Tijuana — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
8/26/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 7Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz36%
×Draw26%
Club Tijuana39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
1.34
Club Tijuana
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 135 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Club Tijuana
0.88

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Club Tijuana
1.92

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Club Tijuana+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Club Tijuana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
61%
Veracruz or Club Tijuana
74%
Draw or Club Tijuana
64%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
16%
Club Tijuana wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
74%
Veracruz 2+ goals
39%
Veracruz 3+ goals
15%
Club Tijuana 1+ goals
75%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
41%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
48%
Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Club Tijuana away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.92 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Club Tijuana defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.34

Club Tijuana attack 0.88 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Veracruz scores more
36%
level
26%
Club Tijuana scores more
39%

Club Tijuana at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veracruz vs Club Tijuana

Veracruz beat Club Tijuana 1-0 in Liga MX on August 26, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente in Veracruz.