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Club Tijuana vs Veracruz — Liga MX 2018

Club Tijuana
Club Tijuana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Veracruz
Veracruz
10/26/2019Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Estadio Caliente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Club Tijuana65%
×Draw20%
Veracruz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Tijuana
2.09
Veracruz
0.89

Club Tijuana creates 135% more chances

Season form · 140 home / 26 away

creates per match

Club Tijuana
1.54
Veracruz
0.58

allows per match

Club Tijuana
1.20
Veracruz
2.65

finishing

Club Tijuana+0.00on par
Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Tijuana ↓

Veracruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Club Tijuana or draw
85%
Club Tijuana or Veracruz
80%
Draw or Veracruz
35%

Winning margin

Club Tijuana wins by 2+
41%
Veracruz wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Club Tijuana 1+ goals
88%
Club Tijuana 2+ goals
62%
Club Tijuana 3+ goals
34%
Veracruz 1+ goals
59%
Veracruz 2+ goals
22%
Veracruz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Club Tijuana (draw refunded)
81%
Veracruz (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Tijuana at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.20 · 140 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Tijuana attack 1.54 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.09

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Club Tijuana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Club Tijuana scores more
65%
level
20%
Veracruz scores more
15%

Club Tijuana at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Club Tijuana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Club Tijuana vs Veracruz

Club Tijuana beat Veracruz 2-0 in Liga MX on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Caliente in Tijuana.