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Veracruz vs Club Queretaro — Liga MX 2018

Veracruz
Veracruz
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Club Queretaro
Club Queretaro
11/10/2018Liga MXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Veracruz34%
×Draw26%
Club Queretaro41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veracruz
1.27
Club Queretaro
1.42

Club Queretaro creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 137 away

creates per match

Veracruz
0.77
Club Queretaro
0.91

allows per match

Veracruz
1.92
Club Queretaro
1.77

finishing

Veracruz+0.00on par
Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veracruz ↓

Club Queretaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Veracruz or draw
59%
Veracruz or Club Queretaro
74%
Draw or Club Queretaro
66%

Winning margin

Veracruz wins by 2+
15%
Club Queretaro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Veracruz 1+ goals
72%
Veracruz 2+ goals
36%
Veracruz 3+ goals
14%
Club Queretaro 1+ goals
76%
Club Queretaro 2+ goals
41%
Club Queretaro 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Veracruz (draw refunded)
45%
Club Queretaro (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veracruz at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

Club Queretaro away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.77 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veracruz attack 0.77 + Club Queretaro defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Club Queretaro attack 0.91 + Veracruz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Veracruz scores more
34%
level
26%
Club Queretaro scores more
41%

Club Queretaro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Veracruz vs Club Queretaro

Veracruz and Club Queretaro drew 2-2 in Liga MX on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Luis Pirata Fuente in Veracruz.