Club Queretaro 2–1 Veracruz: Result & Stats

Club Queretaro

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Veracruz

4/28/2019

Liga MX · Clausura - 16Estadio La Corregidora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Club Queretaro62%

×Draw21%

Veracruz16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club QueretaroExpected goals in this matchVeracruz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.88

Club Queretaro

1.94

Veracruz

0.88

Club Queretaro creates 120% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 26 away

1.22

creates per match

0.58

1.17

allows per match

2.65

creates per match

Club Queretaro

1.22

Veracruz

0.58

allows per match

Club Queretaro

1.17

Veracruz

2.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Queretaro+0.00on par

Veracruz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Queretaro ↓

Veracruz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Club Queretaro or draw

84%

Club Queretaro or Veracruz

79%

Draw or Veracruz

38%

Winning margin

Club Queretaro wins by 2+

37%

Veracruz wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Club Queretaro 1+ goals

86%

Club Queretaro 2+ goals

58%

Club Queretaro 3+ goals

30%

Veracruz 1+ goals

59%

Veracruz 2+ goals

22%

Veracruz 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Club Queretaro (draw refunded)

79%

Veracruz (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Queretaro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 134 matches

Veracruz away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Queretaro attack 1.22 + Veracruz defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.94

Veracruz attack 0.58 + Club Queretaro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Club Queretaro scores more

62%

level

21%

Veracruz scores more

16%

Club Queretaro at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Club Queretaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff