Vera 0–1 Unión Sur Yaiza: Result & Stats

Vera

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Unión Sur Yaiza

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vera50%

×Draw27%

Unión Sur Yaiza23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeraExpected goals in this matchUnión Sur Yaiza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.87

Vera

1.41

Unión Sur Yaiza

0.87

Vera creates 62% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 65 away

1.50

creates per match

0.88

0.86

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Vera

1.50

Unión Sur Yaiza

0.88

allows per match

Vera

0.86

Unión Sur Yaiza

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vera+0.00on par

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Unión Sur Yaiza →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Vera or draw

77%

Vera or Unión Sur Yaiza

73%

Draw or Unión Sur Yaiza

50%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+

24%

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals

76%

Vera 2+ goals

41%

Vera 3+ goals

17%

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals

58%

Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals

22%

Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)

68%

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Unión Sur Yaiza away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.32 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 0.88 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vera scores more

50%

level

27%

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more

23%

Vera at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff