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Unión Sur Yaiza vs Vera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Unión Sur Yaiza
Unión Sur Yaiza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vera
Vera
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6Estadio Municipal de Yaiza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Unión Sur Yaiza55%
×Draw23%
Vera22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.83
Vera
1.08

Unión Sur Yaiza creates 69% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 44 away

creates per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.85
Vera
1.11

allows per match

Unión Sur Yaiza
1.05
Vera
1.82

finishing

Unión Sur Yaiza+0.00on par
Vera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unión Sur Yaiza ↓

Vera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Unión Sur Yaiza or draw
78%
Unión Sur Yaiza or Vera
77%
Draw or Vera
45%

Winning margin

Unión Sur Yaiza wins by 2+
31%
Vera wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Unión Sur Yaiza 1+ goals
84%
Unión Sur Yaiza 2+ goals
54%
Unión Sur Yaiza 3+ goals
28%
Vera 1+ goals
66%
Vera 2+ goals
29%
Vera 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Unión Sur Yaiza (draw refunded)
71%
Vera (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unión Sur Yaiza at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.05 · 65 matches

Vera away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unión Sur Yaiza attack 1.85 + Vera defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Vera attack 1.11 + Unión Sur Yaiza defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Unión Sur Yaiza scores more
55%
level
23%
Vera scores more
22%

Unión Sur Yaiza at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Unión Sur Yaiza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Unión Sur Yaiza 1–0 Vera

Unión Sur Yaiza beat Vera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Yaiza in Lanzarote.