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Vera vs Santa Úrsula — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Vera
Vera
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Santa Úrsula
Santa Úrsula
1/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vera52%
×Draw26%
Santa Úrsula22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vera
1.51
Santa Úrsula
0.88

Vera creates 72% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 92 away

creates per match

Vera
1.50
Santa Úrsula
0.90

allows per match

Vera
0.86
Santa Úrsula
1.52

finishing

Vera+0.00on par
Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Santa Úrsula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Vera or draw
78%
Vera or Santa Úrsula
74%
Draw or Santa Úrsula
48%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+
27%
Santa Úrsula wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals
78%
Vera 2+ goals
44%
Vera 3+ goals
19%
Santa Úrsula 1+ goals
59%
Santa Úrsula 2+ goals
22%
Santa Úrsula 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)
70%
Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.51

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vera scores more
52%
level
26%
Santa Úrsula scores more
22%

Vera at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vera vs Santa Úrsula

Santa Úrsula beat Vera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma in Tenerife.