Santa Úrsula vs Vera: Preview & Prediction

Santa Úrsula

CANC

00:00

Vera

4/26/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 35Estadio Argelio Tabares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Santa Úrsula52%

×Draw25%

Vera23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Santa ÚrsulaExpected goals in this matchVera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.96

Santa Úrsula

1.58

Vera

0.96

Santa Úrsula creates 65% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 44 away

1.33

creates per match

1.11

0.80

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Santa Úrsula

1.33

Vera

1.11

allows per match

Santa Úrsula

0.80

Vera

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Vera+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Santa Úrsula ↓

Vera →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Santa Úrsula or draw

77%

Santa Úrsula or Vera

75%

Draw or Vera

48%

Winning margin

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

27%

Vera wins by 2+

Team goals

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

79%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

47%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

21%

Vera 1+ goals

62%

Vera 2+ goals

25%

Vera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

69%

Vera (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Santa Úrsula at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.80 · 92 matches

Vera away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Santa Úrsula attack 1.33 + Vera defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vera attack 1.11 + Santa Úrsula defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Santa Úrsula scores more

52%

level

25%

Vera scores more

23%

Santa Úrsula at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Santa Úrsula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Santa Úrsula host Vera

April 26, 2020: Santa Úrsula take on Vera in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Santa Úrsula host Vera at Estadio Argelio Tabares.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Santa Úrsula vs Vera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Preview: Santa Úrsula host Vera