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Vera vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Vera
Vera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Mensajero
Mensajero
2/14/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 17Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vera48%
×Draw27%
Mensajero26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vera
1.43
Mensajero
0.97

Vera creates 47% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 76 away

creates per match

Vera
1.50
Mensajero
1.08

allows per match

Vera
0.86
Mensajero
1.36

finishing

Vera+0.00on par
Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Mensajero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vera or draw
74%
Vera or Mensajero
73%
Draw or Mensajero
52%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+
23%
Mensajero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals
76%
Vera 2+ goals
42%
Vera 3+ goals
17%
Mensajero 1+ goals
62%
Mensajero 2+ goals
25%
Mensajero 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)
65%
Mensajero (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Vera scores more
48%
level
27%
Mensajero scores more
26%

Vera at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vera vs Mensajero

Vera beat Mensajero 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma in Tenerife.