Mensajero 2–2 Vera: Result & Stats

Mensajero

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Vera

11/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Mensajero58%

×Draw22%

Vera20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MensajeroExpected goals in this matchVera

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.07

Mensajero

1.96

Vera

1.07

Mensajero creates 83% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 44 away

2.10

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Mensajero

2.10

Vera

1.11

allows per match

Mensajero

1.03

Vera

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par

Vera+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Vera →

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw

80%

Mensajero or Vera

78%

Draw or Vera

42%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+

34%

Vera wins by 2+

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals

86%

Mensajero 2+ goals

58%

Mensajero 3+ goals

31%

Vera 1+ goals

66%

Vera 2+ goals

29%

Vera 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)

74%

Vera (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Vera away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Vera defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.96

Vera attack 1.11 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mensajero scores more

58%

level

22%

Vera scores more

20%

Mensajero at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff