Vera 0–0 Lanzarote: Result & Stats

Vera

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lanzarote

11/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 14Estadio Nuevo Salvador Ledesma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vera45%

×Draw27%

Lanzarote28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeraExpected goals in this matchLanzarote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.03

Vera

1.39

Lanzarote

1.03

Vera creates 35% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 108 away

1.50

creates per match

1.20

0.86

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Vera

1.50

Lanzarote

1.20

allows per match

Vera

0.86

Lanzarote

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vera+0.00on par

Lanzarote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vera ↓

Lanzarote →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vera or draw

72%

Vera or Lanzarote

73%

Draw or Lanzarote

55%

Winning margin

Vera wins by 2+

22%

Lanzarote wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vera 1+ goals

75%

Vera 2+ goals

40%

Vera 3+ goals

16%

Lanzarote 1+ goals

64%

Lanzarote 2+ goals

28%

Lanzarote 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vera (draw refunded)

62%

Lanzarote (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vera at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.86 · 44 matches

Lanzarote away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vera attack 1.50 + Lanzarote defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lanzarote attack 1.20 + Vera defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vera scores more

45%

level

27%

Lanzarote scores more

28%

Vera at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff