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Lanzarote vs Vera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Vera
Vera
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 11Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lanzarote57%
×Draw24%
Vera19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.70
Vera
0.87

Lanzarote creates 95% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 44 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
Vera
1.11

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
Vera
1.82

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
Vera+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

Vera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
81%
Lanzarote or Vera
76%
Draw or Vera
43%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
32%
Vera wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
82%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
51%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
24%
Vera 1+ goals
58%
Vera 2+ goals
22%
Vera 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
75%
Vera (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

Vera away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + Vera defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Vera attack 1.11 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lanzarote scores more
57%
level
24%
Vera scores more
19%

Lanzarote at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lanzarote vs Vera

Lanzarote and Vera drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Lanzarote.