Ventura County 6–3 Saint Louis: Result & Stats

Ventura County

FT

6 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Saint Louis

5/10/2018

USL Championship · Round 15Stubhub Center (Carson, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ventura County47%

×Draw23%

Saint Louis29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventura CountyExpected goals in this matchSaint Louis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.33

Ventura County

1.75

Saint Louis

1.33

Ventura County creates 32% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

2.00

creates per match

0.93

1.73

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Ventura County

2.00

Saint Louis

0.93

allows per match

Ventura County

1.73

Saint Louis

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventura County+0.00on par

Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County ↓

Saint Louis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ventura County or draw

71%

Ventura County or Saint Louis

77%

Draw or Saint Louis

53%

Winning margin

Ventura County wins by 2+

25%

Saint Louis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ventura County 1+ goals

83%

Ventura County 2+ goals

52%

Ventura County 3+ goals

25%

Saint Louis 1+ goals

74%

Saint Louis 2+ goals

38%

Saint Louis 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ventura County (draw refunded)

62%

Saint Louis (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.73 · 75 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County attack 2.00 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.75

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Ventura County defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ventura County scores more

47%

level

23%

Saint Louis scores more

29%

Ventura County at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ventura County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff