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Saint Louis vs Ventura County — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ventura County
Ventura County
4/15/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 9Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Saint Louis51%
×Draw23%
Ventura County25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.79
Ventura County
1.19

Saint Louis creates 50% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 77 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Ventura County
1.39

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Ventura County
2.04

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Ventura County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
75%
Saint Louis or Ventura County
77%
Draw or Ventura County
49%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
28%
Ventura County wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
83%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
53%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
26%
Ventura County 1+ goals
70%
Ventura County 2+ goals
33%
Ventura County 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
67%
Ventura County (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.04 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Ventura County defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ventura County attack 1.39 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saint Louis scores more
51%
level
23%
Ventura County scores more
25%

Saint Louis at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Louis vs Ventura County

Saint Louis beat Ventura County 1-0 in USL Championship on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium (St. Louis, Missouri).