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Ventura County Fusion vs Central Valley Fuego II — USL League Two 2018

Ventura County Fusion
Ventura County Fusion
FT
1 – 0
Central Valley Fuego II
Central Valley Fuego II
6/26/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 51Ventura College Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ventura County Fusion84%
×Draw11%
Central Valley Fuego II5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventura County Fusion
3.09
Central Valley Fuego II
0.65

Ventura County Fusion creates 375% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ventura County Fusion
2.85
Central Valley Fuego II
0.50

allows per match

Ventura County Fusion
0.80
Central Valley Fuego II
3.33

finishing

Ventura County Fusion+0.00on par
Central Valley Fuego II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventura County Fusion ↓

Central Valley Fuego II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ventura County Fusion or draw
95%
Ventura County Fusion or Central Valley Fuego II
89%
Draw or Central Valley Fuego II
16%

Winning margin

Ventura County Fusion wins by 2+
66%
Central Valley Fuego II wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Ventura County Fusion 1+ goals
95%
Ventura County Fusion 2+ goals
81%
Ventura County Fusion 3+ goals
58%
Central Valley Fuego II 1+ goals
48%
Central Valley Fuego II 2+ goals
14%
Central Valley Fuego II 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ventura County Fusion (draw refunded)
94%
Central Valley Fuego II (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventura County Fusion at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.80 · 40 matches

Central Valley Fuego II away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventura County Fusion attack 2.85 + Central Valley Fuego II defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.09

Central Valley Fuego II attack 0.50 + Ventura County Fusion defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Ventura County Fusion scores more
84%
level
11%
Central Valley Fuego II scores more
5%

Ventura County Fusion at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Ventura County Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Ventura County Fusion 1–0 Central Valley Fuego II

Ventura County Fusion beat Central Valley Fuego II 1-0 in USL League Two on June 26, 2022.

The match was played at Ventura College Stadium in Ventura, California.