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Central Valley Fuego II vs Ventura County Fusion — USL League Two 2018

Central Valley Fuego II
Central Valley Fuego II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ventura County Fusion
Ventura County Fusion
5/30/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 19Fresno Pacific University

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Central Valley Fuego II19%
×Draw19%
Ventura County Fusion62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Central Valley Fuego II
1.33
Ventura County Fusion
2.48

Ventura County Fusion creates 86% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 41 away

creates per match

Central Valley Fuego II
1.33
Ventura County Fusion
2.29

allows per match

Central Valley Fuego II
2.67
Ventura County Fusion
1.32

finishing

Central Valley Fuego II+0.00on par
Ventura County Fusion+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Valley Fuego II ↓

Ventura County Fusion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Central Valley Fuego II or draw
38%
Central Valley Fuego II or Ventura County Fusion
81%
Draw or Ventura County Fusion
81%

Winning margin

Central Valley Fuego II wins by 2+
8%
Ventura County Fusion wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Central Valley Fuego II 1+ goals
74%
Central Valley Fuego II 2+ goals
38%
Central Valley Fuego II 3+ goals
15%
Ventura County Fusion 1+ goals
92%
Ventura County Fusion 2+ goals
70%
Ventura County Fusion 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Central Valley Fuego II (draw refunded)
24%
Ventura County Fusion (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Valley Fuego II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Ventura County Fusion away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Valley Fuego II attack 1.33 + Ventura County Fusion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Ventura County Fusion attack 2.29 + Central Valley Fuego II defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Central Valley Fuego II scores more
19%
level
19%
Ventura County Fusion scores more
62%

Ventura County Fusion at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ventura County Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Central Valley Fuego II 0–1 Ventura County Fusion

Ventura County Fusion beat Central Valley Fuego II 1-0 in USL League Two on May 30, 2022.

The match was played at Fresno Pacific University in Fresno, California.