Ventforet Kofu 1–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC: Result & Stats

Ventforet Kofu

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ulsan Hyundai FC

2/21/2024

AFC Champions League · Round of 16Japan National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ventforet Kofu46%

×Draw23%

Ulsan Hyundai FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ventforet KofuExpected goals in this matchUlsan Hyundai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.49

Ventforet Kofu

1.86

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.49

Ventforet Kofu creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 31 away

2.25

creates per match

1.48

1.50

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu

2.25

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.48

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu

1.50

Ulsan Hyundai FC

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Ulsan Hyundai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw

69%

Ventforet Kofu or Ulsan Hyundai FC

77%

Draw or Ulsan Hyundai FC

54%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

25%

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

84%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

55%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

28%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals

77%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals

44%

Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

60%

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 2.25 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.86

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.48 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more

46%

level

23%

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more

31%

Ventforet Kofu at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff