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Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Ventforet Kofu — AFC Champions League 2018

Ulsan Hyundai FC
Ulsan Hyundai FCadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
2/15/2024AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Round of 16Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ulsan Hyundai FC62%
×Draw23%
Ventforet Kofu16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.80
Ventforet Kofu
0.78

Ulsan Hyundai FC creates 131% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
1.85
Ventforet Kofu
0.75

allows per match

Ulsan Hyundai FC
0.82
Ventforet Kofu
1.75

finishing

Ulsan Hyundai FC+0.00on par
Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ulsan Hyundai FC ↓

Ventforet Kofu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ulsan Hyundai FC or draw
84%
Ulsan Hyundai FC or Ventforet Kofu
77%
Draw or Ventforet Kofu
38%

Winning margin

Ulsan Hyundai FC wins by 2+
36%
Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ulsan Hyundai FC 1+ goals
83%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2+ goals
54%
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3+ goals
27%
Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
54%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
18%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ulsan Hyundai FC (draw refunded)
80%
Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ulsan Hyundai FC at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.82 · 34 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.85 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ventforet Kofu attack 0.75 + Ulsan Hyundai FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Ulsan Hyundai FC scores more
62%
level
23%
Ventforet Kofu scores more
16%

Ulsan Hyundai FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Ulsan Hyundai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3–0 Ventforet Kofu

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Ventforet Kofu 3-0 in AFC Champions League on February 15, 2024.

The match was played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in Ulsan.