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Ventforet Kofu vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Ventforet Kofu
Ventforet Kofu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
4/22/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 11JIT Recycle Ink Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Ventforet Kofu37%
×Draw27%
Machida Zelvia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ventforet Kofu
1.24
Machida Zelvia
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 165 home / 127 away

creates per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.36
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Ventforet Kofu
1.12
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ventforet Kofu ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ventforet Kofu or draw
64%
Ventforet Kofu or Machida Zelvia
73%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
63%

Winning margin

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+
16%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals
71%
Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals
35%
Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals
13%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
70%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
34%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)
51%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ventforet Kofu at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.12 · 165 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.36 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.24

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ventforet Kofu scores more
37%
level
27%
Machida Zelvia scores more
36%

Ventforet Kofu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Ventforet Kofu 1–0 Machida Zelvia

Ventforet Kofu beat Machida Zelvia 1-0 in J2 League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at JIT Recycle Ink Stadium in Kofu.