Machida Zelvia 1–2 Ventforet Kofu: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ventforet Kofu

10/19/2022

J2 League · Round 41Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Machida Zelvia37%

×Draw27%

Ventforet Kofu36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchVentforet Kofu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.20

Machida Zelvia

1.23

Ventforet Kofu

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 166 away

1.32

creates per match

1.29

1.10

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.32

Ventforet Kofu

1.29

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.10

Ventforet Kofu

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Ventforet Kofu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

64%

Machida Zelvia or Ventforet Kofu

73%

Draw or Ventforet Kofu

63%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

16%

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

71%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

35%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

13%

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

70%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

34%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

51%

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

37%

level

27%

Ventforet Kofu scores more

36%

Machida Zelvia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff