Venezuela 0–1 Peru: Result & Stats | Copa America

Venezuela

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Peru

A. Carrillo 48'

6/27/2021

Copa America · Group B - 5Estádio Nacional de Brasília

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Venezuela32%

×Draw30%

Peru38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VenezuelaExpected goals in this matchPeru

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.13

Venezuela

1.01

Peru

1.13

Peru creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

0.60

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Venezuela

0.60

Peru

1.25

allows per match

Venezuela

1.00

Peru

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezuela+0.00on par

Peru+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela ↓

Peru →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Venezuela or draw

62%

Venezuela or Peru

70%

Draw or Peru

68%

Winning margin

Venezuela wins by 2+

12%

Peru wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Venezuela 1+ goals

64%

Venezuela 2+ goals

27%

Venezuela 3+ goals

8%

Peru 1+ goals

68%

Peru 2+ goals

31%

Peru 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Venezuela (draw refunded)

46%

Peru (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Peru away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela attack 0.60 + Peru defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.01

Peru attack 1.25 + Venezuela defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Venezuela scores more

32%

level

30%

Peru scores more

38%

Peru at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Peru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Cueva

Peru · M

8.2

Match Events

21'

Ronald Hernández

27'

L. Abram← A. Callens

48'

A. Carrillo

59'

José Martínez← C. Cásseres

59'

R. Otero← J. Savarino

69'

Y. Soteldo← E. Castillo

69'

A. González← R. Rosales

73'

R. García← A. Carrillo

73'

W. Cartagena← R. Tapia

78'

Jan Hurtado← S. Córdova

83'

S. Ormeño← G. Lapadula

83'

A. Valera← C. Cueva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VenezuelaPeru

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots12

5Corners4

17Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots12

3On Target4

4Off Target6

3Blocked2

4Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

444Total Passes600

374Accurate Passes519

84%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls9

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides3