Peru 1–1 Venezuela: Result & Stats | League #34

Peru

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Venezuela

Y. Yotun 17'

J. Savarino 54'

11/22/2023

League #34 · Group Stage - 6Estadio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Peru56%

×Draw26%

Venezuela17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PeruExpected goals in this matchVenezuela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.68

Peru

1.48

Venezuela

0.68

Peru creates 118% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

0.80

creates per match

0.56

0.80

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Peru

0.80

Venezuela

0.56

allows per match

Peru

0.80

Venezuela

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Peru+0.00on par

Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Peru ↓

Venezuela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Peru or draw

83%

Peru or Venezuela

74%

Draw or Venezuela

44%

Winning margin

Peru wins by 2+

29%

Venezuela wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Peru 1+ goals

77%

Peru 2+ goals

43%

Peru 3+ goals

19%

Venezuela 1+ goals

49%

Venezuela 2+ goals

15%

Venezuela 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Peru (draw refunded)

77%

Venezuela (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Peru at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Venezuela away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Peru attack 0.80 + Venezuela defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.48

Venezuela attack 0.56 + Peru defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Peru scores more

56%

level

26%

Venezuela scores more

17%

Peru at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Peru will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Savarino

Venezuela · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

Y. Yotun↳ J. Grimaldo

24'

27'

44'

53'

54'

J. Savarino↳ D. Machis

55'

E. Flores← B. Reyna

65'

F. Zanelatto← J. Grimaldo

65'

A. Carrillo← P. A. Quispe Cordova

77'

C. Casseres← J. Savarino

84'

W. Cartagena← P. Aquino

84'

Paolo Guerrero← M. Lopez

85'

Edson Castillo

85'

E. Castillo← J. Moreno

85'

E. Ramirez← S. Rondon

90+4'

S. Sosa← Y. Herrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PeruVenezuela

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots9

2Corners4

19Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked3

5Inside Box6

7Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

325Total Passes341

222Accurate Passes260

68%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls18

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0