Venezuela 2–0 Bolivia: Result & Stats | League #34

Venezuela

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bolivia

S. Rondon 30'

H. Cuellar 5' (OG)

6/6/2025

League #34 · Group Stage - 15Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Venezuela72%

×Draw16%

Bolivia11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VenezuelaExpected goals in this matchBolivia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

0.88

Venezuela

2.50

Bolivia

0.88

Venezuela creates 184% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 3 away

1.33

creates per match

0.33

1.43

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Venezuela

1.33

Bolivia

0.33

allows per match

Venezuela

1.43

Bolivia

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venezuela+0.00on par

Bolivia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezuela ↓

Bolivia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Venezuela or draw

89%

Venezuela or Bolivia

84%

Draw or Bolivia

28%

Winning margin

Venezuela wins by 2+

50%

Bolivia wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Venezuela 1+ goals

92%

Venezuela 2+ goals

71%

Venezuela 3+ goals

45%

Bolivia 1+ goals

59%

Bolivia 2+ goals

22%

Bolivia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Venezuela (draw refunded)

86%

Bolivia (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezuela at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.43 · 21 matches

Bolivia away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezuela attack 1.33 + Bolivia defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.50

Bolivia attack 0.33 + Venezuela defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Venezuela scores more

72%

level

16%

Bolivia scores more

11%

Venezuela at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

S. Rondon

Venezuela · F

8.2

Match Events

5'

H. CuellarOwn goal

30'

S. Rondon

46'

M. Villarroel← H. Cuellar

62'

Y. Soteldo← J. Martinez

68'

D. Arroyo← D. Medina

68'

Robson Matheus← E. Vaca Moreno

68'

C. Algaranaz← M. Paniagua

69'

Miguelito

76'

L. Flores← T. Segovia

76'

C. Casseres← J. Savarino

76'

J. Velasquez← L. L. Chavez Cruz

87'

T. Rincon← J. Martinez

87'

Jan Hurtado← E. Bello

90'

Salomón Rondón

90'

Luis Haquín

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VenezuelaBolivia

Overview

41%Possession59%

10Total Shots9

5Corners2

12Fouls18

Shots

10Total Shots9

5On Target2

5Off Target5

0Blocked2

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

291Total Passes421

236Accurate Passes358

81%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1