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Bolivia vs Venezuela — League #34 2026

Bolivia
Bolivia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Venezuela
Venezuela
M. Martins 83', 5'
D. Bejarano 60'
J. Chancellor 26'
6/3/2021League #34League #34 · Group Stage - 7Estadio Hernando Siles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bolivia77%
×Draw15%
Venezuela8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolivia
2.52
Venezuela
0.69

Bolivia creates 265% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bolivia
3.00
Venezuela
0.62

allows per match

Bolivia
0.75
Venezuela
2.05

finishing

Bolivia+0.00on par
Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolivia ↓

Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Bolivia or draw
92%
Bolivia or Venezuela
85%
Draw or Venezuela
23%

Winning margin

Bolivia wins by 2+
55%
Venezuela wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Bolivia 1+ goals
92%
Bolivia 2+ goals
71%
Bolivia 3+ goals
45%
Venezuela 1+ goals
50%
Venezuela 2+ goals
15%
Venezuela 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Bolivia (draw refunded)
90%
Venezuela (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolivia at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Venezuela away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolivia attack 3.00 + Venezuela defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.52

Venezuela attack 0.62 + Bolivia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Bolivia scores more
77%
level
15%
Venezuela scores more
8%

Bolivia at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Bolivia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
M. MartinsBoliviaBolivia · F
8.7

Match Events

5'
M. Martins↳ J. Flores
12'
Diego Bejarano
26'
J. Chancellor
33'
Wilker Ángel
45+3'
Erwin Saavedra
45+2'
Alexander González
46'
J. Sagredo← J. Flores
58'
G. Álvarez← H. Vaca
60'
D. Bejarano↳ J. Arce
63'
Josef Martínez← F. Aristeguieta
63'
J. Savarino← A. González
72'
José Martínez← J. Moreno
75'
D. Wayar← J. Arce
79'
J. Cádiz← C. Cásseres
83'
M. Martins↳ D. Bejarano
90+5'
Leonel Justiniano
90+4'
R. Vaca← E. Saavedra
90+4'
R. Fernández← R. Ramallo

Possession

52%Bolivia

Shots

18Bolivia

Pass accuracy

50%Bolivia

Statistics

BoliviaVenezuela
Overview
52%Possession48%
18Total Shots11
6Corners2
14Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots11
7On Target6
8Off Target5
3Blocked0
12Inside Box3
6Outside Box8
Passing
52%Possession48%
392Total Passes362
331Accurate Passes301
84%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls11
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

League #34: Bolivia 3–1 Venezuela

Bolivia beat Venezuela 3-1 in League #34 on June 3, 2021.

Goals: M. Martins (5', 83'), J. Chancellor (26'), D. Bejarano (60').

Bolivia controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Hernando Siles in La Paz.