Venezia 2–3 Reggiana: Result & Stats | Serie B

Venezia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Reggiana

J. Pohjanpalo 33'

G. Busio 20'

E. Pieragnolo 65'

G. Altare 50' (OG)

M. Portanova 45+1'

4/1/2024

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Venezia59%

×Draw22%

Reggiana19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchReggiana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.00

Venezia

1.92

Reggiana

1.00

Venezia creates 92% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.42

creates per match

1.14

0.86

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Venezia

2.42

Reggiana

1.14

allows per match

Venezia

0.86

Reggiana

1.42

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.64scores less than expected

finishing

Venezia+0.25scores more

Reggiana-0.64scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Reggiana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

81%

Venezia or Reggiana

78%

Draw or Reggiana

41%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

35%

Reggiana wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

85%

Venezia 2+ goals

57%

Venezia 3+ goals

30%

Reggiana 1+ goals

63%

Reggiana 2+ goals

26%

Reggiana 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

75%

Reggiana (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.86 · 9 matches

Reggiana away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 2.42 + Reggiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.92

Reggiana attack 1.14 + Venezia defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Venezia scores more

59%

level

22%

Reggiana scores more

19%

Venezia at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

M. Portanova

Reggiana · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

Filippo Melegoni

20'

G. Busio

21'

M. Portanova← N. Girma

33'

J. Pohjanpalo↳ C. Gytkjær

35'

Joel PohjanpaloGoal confirmed

45+1'

M. Portanova↳ R. Fiamozzi

46'

N. Pierini← C. Gytkjær

50'

G. AltareOwn goal

55'

Luca Cigarini

65'

E. Pieragnolo↳ M. Portanova

70'

J. Antiste← M. Portanova

71'

M. Jajalo← F. Zampano

71'

M. Olivieri← G. Busio

83'

D. Cheryshev← B. Bjarkason

86'

T. Reinhart← L. Cigarini

86'

L. Libutti← R. Fiamozzi

88'

M. Ellertsson← G. Altare

90+3'

Edoardo Pieragnolo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeneziaReggiana

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots16

7Corners6

12Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots16

6On Target5

7Off Target6

5Blocked5

11Inside Box9

7Outside Box7

Passing

52%Possession48%

475Total Passes450

408Accurate Passes385

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls7

0Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1