Reggiana 1–3 Venezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Reggiana

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Venezia

N. Girma 39'

M. Svoboda 57'

J. Yeboah 34' (pen)

A. Adorante 21'

1/10/2026

Serie B · Round 19MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Reggiana20%

×Draw24%

Venezia55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ReggianaExpected goals in this matchVenezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.67

Reggiana

0.91

Venezia

1.67

Venezia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

0.95

creates per match

2.01

1.32

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Reggiana

0.95

Venezia

2.01

allows per match

Reggiana

1.32

Venezia

0.87

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Reggiana-0.22scores less

Venezia-0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Reggiana ↓

Venezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Reggiana or draw

45%

Reggiana or Venezia

76%

Draw or Venezia

80%

Winning margin

Reggiana wins by 2+

7%

Venezia wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Reggiana 1+ goals

60%

Reggiana 2+ goals

23%

Reggiana 3+ goals

6%

Venezia 1+ goals

81%

Venezia 2+ goals

50%

Venezia 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Reggiana (draw refunded)

27%

Venezia (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Reggiana at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Venezia away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.87 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Reggiana attack 0.95 + Venezia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.91

Venezia attack 2.01 + Reggiana defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Reggiana scores more

20%

level

24%

Venezia scores more

55%

Venezia at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Svoboda

Venezia · D

8.2

Match Events

21'

A. Adorante↳ I. Doumbia

32'

Andrea AdorantePenalty confirmed

34'

J. YeboahPenalty

39'

N. Girma

45+4'

Natan Girma

45+3'

John YeboahPenalty confirmed

46'

A. Novakovich← L. Libutti

57'

M. Svoboda

69'

Joel Schingtienne

72'

M. Venturi← A. Adorante

73'

A. Tripaldelli← A. Bozzolan

80'

M. Sampirisi← A. Papetti

80'

L. Belardinelli← Charlys

82'

A. Pietrelli← R. Sagrado

85'

90+5'

90+2'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ReggianaVenezia

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots12

5Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots12

6On Target5

6Off Target6

1Blocked1

9Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

286Total Passes500

219Accurate Passes439

77%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0