Venezia 3–1 Padova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Venezia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Padova

K. Perez 74'

I. Doumbia 46'

M. Svoboda 41'

A. Capelli 82'

3/17/2026

Serie B · Round 31Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Venezia70%

×Draw18%

Padova12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchPadova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.82

Venezia

2.30

Padova

0.82

Venezia creates 180% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.55

creates per match

0.91

0.73

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Venezia

2.55

Padova

0.91

allows per match

Venezia

0.73

Padova

2.05

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Venezia-0.05on par

Padova+0.09on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Padova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

88%

Venezia or Padova

82%

Draw or Padova

30%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

47%

Padova wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

90%

Venezia 2+ goals

67%

Venezia 3+ goals

40%

Padova 1+ goals

56%

Padova 2+ goals

20%

Padova 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

86%

Padova (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.73 · 6 matches

Padova away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.05 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 2.55 + Padova defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.30

Padova attack 0.91 + Venezia defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Venezia scores more

70%

level

18%

Padova scores more

12%

Venezia at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Svoboda

Venezia · D

8.7

Match Events

33'

39'

41'

46'

56'

P. Ghiglione← C. Buonaiuto

63'

Marco Perrotta

66'

G. Favale← C. Faedo

68'

N. Lella← I. Doumbia

68'

M. Compagnon← J. Yeboah

74'

K. Perez↳ A. Hainaut

76'

M. Dagasso← G. Busio

76'

L. Crisetig← G. Giunti

76'

F. Belli← M. Perrotta

76'

K. Varas← P. Fusi

77'

E. Bohinen← K. Perez

82'

A. Capelli↳ K. Lasagna

86'

R. Sagrado← A. Hainaut

89'

Mattia Compagnon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeneziaPadova

Overview

66%Possession34%

30Total Shots8

3.68Expected Goals (xG)0.63

9Corners1

9Fouls13

Shots

30Total Shots8

9On Target3

9Off Target1

12Blocked4

21Inside Box6

9Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

621Total Passes326

548Accurate Passes227

88%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

0.30Goals Prevented0.30

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2