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Padova vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Padova
Padova
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Venezia
Venezia
J. Yeboah 67' (pen)
G. Busio 9'
11/22/2025Serie BSerie B · Round 13Stadio Euganeo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Padova20%
×Draw23%
Venezia56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padova
0.97
Venezia
1.78

Venezia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

creates per match

Padova
1.06
Venezia
2.01

allows per match

Padova
1.56
Venezia
0.87

finishing

Padova-0.06on par
Venezia-0.01on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padova ↓

Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Padova or draw
44%
Padova or Venezia
77%
Draw or Venezia
80%

Winning margin

Padova wins by 2+
7%
Venezia wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Padova 1+ goals
62%
Padova 2+ goals
25%
Padova 3+ goals
7%
Venezia 1+ goals
83%
Venezia 2+ goals
53%
Venezia 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Padova (draw refunded)
27%
Venezia (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padova at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.56 · 10 matches

Venezia away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.87 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padova attack 1.06 + Venezia defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.97

Venezia attack 2.01 + Padova defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Padova scores more
20%
level
23%
Venezia scores more
56%

Venezia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
F. StankovicVeneziaVenezia · G
8.9

Match Events

9'
G. Busio↳ J. Yeboah
37'
Mattia Compagnon
46'
R. Sagrado← M. Compagnon
51'
Kike Pérez
54'
Alessandro Seghetti
56'
Pietro Fusi
58'
Papu Gomez← A. Seghetti
58'
C. Buonaiuto← P. Ghiglione
67'
J. YeboahPenalty
68'
A. Adorante← K. Perez
68'
A. Duncan← D. Fila
71'
M. Sverko← B. Franjic
73'
L. Crisetig← J. Harder
79'
Lorenzo Crisetig
79'
Marco Perrotta
82'
E. Bohinen← J. Yeboah
89'
F. Belli← A. Barreca
89'
G. Favale← C. Faedo
90+8'
Andrea Adorante

Possession

43%Padova

Shots

12Padova

Pass accuracy

48%Padova

Statistics

PadovaVenezia
Overview
43%Possession57%
12Total Shots16
0.60Expected Goals (xG)1.86
8Corners6
15Fouls16
Shots
12Total Shots16
7On Target7
4Off Target4
1Blocked5
6Inside Box10
6Outside Box6
Passing
43%Possession57%
338Total Passes458
260Accurate Passes375
77%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
5Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls16
4Yellow Cards3
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Padova vs Venezia

Venezia beat Padova 2-0 in Serie B on November 22, 2025.

Goals: G. Busio (9'), J. Yeboah (67' pen).

Venezia controlled possession (57%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Euganeo in Padova.