Venezia 1–2 Cesena: Result & Stats | Serie B

Venezia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cesena

G. Busio 83' (pen)

M. Mangraviti 72'

R. Ciervo 54'

9/20/2025

Serie B · Round 4Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Venezia58%

×Draw22%

Cesena20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VeneziaExpected goals in this matchCesena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.01

Venezia

1.90

Cesena

1.01

Venezia creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

2.42

creates per match

1.17

0.86

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Venezia

2.42

Cesena

1.17

allows per match

Venezia

0.86

Cesena

1.38

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

-0.72scores less than expected

finishing

Venezia+0.25scores more

Cesena-0.72scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venezia ↓

Cesena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Venezia or draw

80%

Venezia or Cesena

78%

Draw or Cesena

42%

Winning margin

Venezia wins by 2+

34%

Cesena wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Venezia 1+ goals

85%

Venezia 2+ goals

56%

Venezia 3+ goals

29%

Cesena 1+ goals

64%

Cesena 2+ goals

27%

Cesena 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Venezia (draw refunded)

75%

Cesena (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venezia at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.86 · 9 matches

Cesena away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venezia attack 2.42 + Cesena defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.90

Cesena attack 1.17 + Venezia defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Venezia scores more

58%

level

22%

Cesena scores more

20%

Venezia at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

R. Ciervo

Cesena · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

54'

61'

61'

61'

M. Venturi← J. Schingtienne

62'

R. Celia← R. Ciervo

63'

Gianluca Busio

70'

M. Sverko← B. Franjic

71'

D. Bisoli← M. Castagnetti

71'

S. Balde← C. Shpendi

72'

M. Mangraviti

77'

A. Casas← J. Yeboah

81'

Daniel FilaPenalty confirmed

83'

G. BusioPenalty

84'

M. Piacentini← M. Mangraviti

84'

90+9'

90+1'

90+3'

90+8'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VeneziaCesena

Overview

68%Possession32%

17Total Shots13

2Corners3

17Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots13

3On Target6

10Off Target4

4Blocked3

10Inside Box9

7Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

544Total Passes259

478Accurate Passes184

88%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Serie B: Venezia 1–2 Cesena

Cesena beat Venezia 2-1 in Serie B on September 20, 2025.

Goals: R. Ciervo (54'), M. Mangraviti (72'), G. Busio (83' pen).

Venezia controlled possession (68%) and registered 17 shots to 13.

The match was played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Venice.

Venezia vs Cesena — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Venezia 1–2 Cesena