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Cesena vs Venezia — Serie B 2018

Cesena
Cesena
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Venezia
Venezia
L. Lauberbach 90' (pen)
A. Hainaut 62'
A. Adorante 45'
G. Busio 38'
2/14/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 25Stadio Dino Manuzzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Cesena33%
×Draw24%
Venezia43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cesena
1.37
Venezia
1.61

Venezia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cesena
1.76
Venezia
1.83

allows per match

Cesena
1.39
Venezia
0.98

finishing

Cesena-0.26scores less
Venezia+0.28scores more

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cesena ↓

Venezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cesena or draw
57%
Cesena or Venezia
76%
Draw or Venezia
67%

Winning margin

Cesena wins by 2+
15%
Venezia wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Cesena 1+ goals
75%
Cesena 2+ goals
40%
Cesena 3+ goals
16%
Venezia 1+ goals
80%
Venezia 2+ goals
48%
Venezia 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Cesena (draw refunded)
43%
Venezia (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cesena at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.39 · 14 matches

Venezia away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.98 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cesena attack 1.76 + Venezia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.37

Venezia attack 1.83 + Cesena defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cesena scores more
33%
level
24%
Venezia scores more
43%

Venezia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Venezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
F. StankovicVeneziaVenezia · G
9.3

Match Events

17'
V. Magni← G. Castrovilli
36'
Massimiliano Mangraviti
38'
G. Busio
45'
A. Adorante↳ J. Yeboah
62'
A. Hainaut↳ I. Doumbia
64'
N. Lella← A. Duncan
64'
L. Lauberbach← A. Adorante
67'
G. Vrioni← T. Berti
70'
Gianluca Frabotta
70'
Issa Doumbia
75'
S. Bastoni← G. Frabotta
76'
M. Guidi← A. Ciofi
76'
M. Piacentini← M. Mangraviti
76'
M. Dagasso← I. Doumbia
76'
K. Perez← J. Yeboah
85'
R. Haps← R. Sagrado
86'
Giovanni Zaro
90'
L. LauberbachPenalty

Possession

33%Cesena

Shots

11Cesena

Pass accuracy

46%Cesena

Statistics

CesenaVenezia
Overview
33%Possession67%
11Total Shots14
0.74Expected Goals (xG)2.98
5Corners5
11Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots14
4On Target7
4Off Target4
3Blocked3
8Inside Box9
3Outside Box5
Passing
33%Possession67%
296Total Passes619
231Accurate Passes570
78%Pass Accuracy92%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
0.85Goals Prevented0.85
Discipline
11Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Serie B: Cesena 0–4 Venezia

Venezia beat Cesena 4-0 in Serie B on February 14, 2026.

Goals: G. Busio (38'), A. Adorante (45'), A. Hainaut (62'), L. Lauberbach (90' pen).

Venezia controlled possession (67%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Cesena.