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Vendsyssel FF vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
3/20/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 19Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vendsyssel FF52%
×Draw24%
Thisted FC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.74
Thisted FC
1.13

Vendsyssel FF creates 54% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 87 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
2.00
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.06
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
75%
Vendsyssel FF or Thisted FC
76%
Draw or Thisted FC
48%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
28%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
82%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
52%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
25%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
68%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
31%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
68%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 2.00 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.74

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
52%
level
24%
Thisted FC scores more
25%

Vendsyssel FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vendsyssel FF vs Thisted FC

Vendsyssel FF beat Thisted FC 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 20, 2026.

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.