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Thisted FC vs Vendsyssel FF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Thisted FC
Thisted FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
5/13/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Thisted FC33%
×Draw26%
Vendsyssel FF41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Thisted FC
1.21
Vendsyssel FF
1.38

Vendsyssel FF creates 14% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 16 away

creates per match

Thisted FC
1.18
Vendsyssel FF
1.56

allows per match

Thisted FC
1.20
Vendsyssel FF
1.25

finishing

Thisted FC+0.00on par
Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Thisted FC ↓

Vendsyssel FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Thisted FC or draw
59%
Thisted FC or Vendsyssel FF
74%
Draw or Vendsyssel FF
67%

Winning margin

Thisted FC wins by 2+
14%
Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Thisted FC 1+ goals
70%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
34%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
12%
Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
75%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
40%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Thisted FC (draw refunded)
45%
Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Thisted FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.20 · 87 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Thisted FC attack 1.18 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.56 + Thisted FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Thisted FC scores more
33%
level
26%
Vendsyssel FF scores more
41%

Vendsyssel FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Thisted FC 0–2 Vendsyssel FF

Vendsyssel FF beat Thisted FC 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 13, 2026.