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Vendsyssel FF vs Ishøj — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ishøj
Ishøj
M. Henriksen 61'
S. Simpson 1'
M. Azaquoun 63'
11/1/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 14Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Vendsyssel FF54%
×Draw23%
Ishøj24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.89
Ishøj
1.19

Vendsyssel FF creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
2.00
Ishøj
1.31

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.06
Ishøj
1.78

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
Ishøj+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

Ishøj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
76%
Vendsyssel FF or Ishøj
77%
Draw or Ishøj
46%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
31%
Ishøj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
85%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
56%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
29%
Ishøj 1+ goals
70%
Ishøj 2+ goals
33%
Ishøj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
69%
Ishøj (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Ishøj away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.78 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 2.00 + Ishøj defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.89

Ishøj attack 1.31 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
54%
level
23%
Ishøj scores more
24%

Vendsyssel FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
S. Simpson
61'
M. Henriksen
63'
M. Azaquoun
Vendsyssel
Ishøj
M. Kristensen
Manager: M. Kristensen
Erdogan Aslan
Manager: Erdogan Aslan

Match Recap: Vendsyssel FF vs Ishøj

Vendsyssel FF beat Ishøj 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 1, 2025.

Goals: S. Simpson (1'), M. Henriksen (61'), M. Azaquoun (63').

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.