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Ishøj vs Vendsyssel FF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Ishøj
Ishøj
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
L. Steffensen 8'
9/6/20252nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 6Ishoj Idraets Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ishøj32%
×Draw26%
Vendsyssel FF42%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ishøj
1.25
Vendsyssel FF
1.47

Vendsyssel FF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 16 away

creates per match

Ishøj
1.25
Vendsyssel FF
1.56

allows per match

Ishøj
1.38
Vendsyssel FF
1.25

finishing

Ishøj+0.00on par
Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ishøj ↓

Vendsyssel FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ishøj or draw
58%
Ishøj or Vendsyssel FF
74%
Draw or Vendsyssel FF
68%

Winning margin

Ishøj wins by 2+
14%
Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ishøj 1+ goals
71%
Ishøj 2+ goals
36%
Ishøj 3+ goals
13%
Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
77%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
43%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Ishøj (draw refunded)
43%
Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ishøj at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 32 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ishøj attack 1.25 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.56 + Ishøj defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ishøj scores more
32%
level
26%
Vendsyssel FF scores more
42%

Vendsyssel FF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vendsyssel FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
L. Steffensen
Ishøj
Vendsyssel
Erdogan Aslan
Manager: Erdogan Aslan
M. Kristensen
Manager: M. Kristensen

2nd Division - Group 1: Ishøj 0–1 Vendsyssel FF

Vendsyssel FF beat Ishøj 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 6, 2025.

Goals: L. Steffensen (8').

The match was played at Ishoj Idraets Center in Ishoj.