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Vendsyssel FF vs FC Fredericia — 1. Division 2018

Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
FC Fredericia
FC Fredericia
5/24/20241. Division1. Division · Promotion Round - 9Nord Energi Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Vendsyssel FF36%
×Draw25%
FC Fredericia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vendsyssel FF
1.38
FC Fredericia
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 112 away

creates per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.31
FC Fredericia
1.70

allows per match

Vendsyssel FF
1.14
FC Fredericia
1.45

finishing

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par
FC Fredericia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vendsyssel FF ↓

FC Fredericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vendsyssel FF or draw
62%
Vendsyssel FF or FC Fredericia
75%
Draw or FC Fredericia
64%

Winning margin

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
17%
FC Fredericia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
75%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
40%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
16%
FC Fredericia 1+ goals
76%
FC Fredericia 2+ goals
41%
FC Fredericia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
49%
FC Fredericia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vendsyssel FF at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

FC Fredericia away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.31 + FC Fredericia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

FC Fredericia attack 1.70 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vendsyssel FF scores more
36%
level
25%
FC Fredericia scores more
38%

FC Fredericia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Vendsyssel FF 1–4 FC Fredericia

FC Fredericia beat Vendsyssel FF 4-1 in 1. Division on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Nord Energi Arena in Hjørring.