FC Fredericia 0–0 Vendsyssel FF: Result & Stats

FC Fredericia

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Vendsyssel FF

12/1/2023

1. Division · Round 18Monjasa Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

FC Fredericia47%

×Draw24%

Vendsyssel FF29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC FredericiaExpected goals in this matchVendsyssel FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.25

FC Fredericia

1.67

Vendsyssel FF

1.25

FC Fredericia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 100 away

1.63

creates per match

1.15

1.35

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

FC Fredericia

1.63

Vendsyssel FF

1.15

allows per match

FC Fredericia

1.35

Vendsyssel FF

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Fredericia+0.00on par

Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Fredericia ↓

Vendsyssel FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Fredericia or draw

71%

FC Fredericia or Vendsyssel FF

76%

Draw or Vendsyssel FF

53%

Winning margin

FC Fredericia wins by 2+

25%

Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Fredericia 1+ goals

81%

FC Fredericia 2+ goals

50%

FC Fredericia 3+ goals

23%

Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals

71%

Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals

36%

Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

FC Fredericia (draw refunded)

62%

Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Fredericia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.35 · 114 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Fredericia attack 1.63 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.15 + FC Fredericia defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Fredericia scores more

47%

level

24%

Vendsyssel FF scores more

29%

FC Fredericia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Fredericia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff