Venados FC 1–0 Tepatitlán: Result & Stats

Venados FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tepatitlán

10/11/2025

Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Venados FC49%

×Draw26%

Tepatitlán26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Venados FCExpected goals in this matchTepatitlán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.03

Venados FC

1.53

Tepatitlán

1.03

Venados FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 107 away

1.63

creates per match

0.98

1.08

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Venados FC

1.63

Tepatitlán

0.98

allows per match

Venados FC

1.08

Tepatitlán

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par

Tepatitlán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Tepatitlán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw

74%

Venados FC or Tepatitlán

74%

Draw or Tepatitlán

51%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+

25%

Tepatitlán wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals

78%

Venados FC 2+ goals

45%

Venados FC 3+ goals

20%

Tepatitlán 1+ goals

64%

Tepatitlán 2+ goals

28%

Tepatitlán 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)

66%

Tepatitlán (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Tepatitlán away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Tepatitlán defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Tepatitlán attack 0.98 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Venados FC scores more

49%

level

26%

Tepatitlán scores more

26%

Venados FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff