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Tepatitlán vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Tepatitlán
Tepatitlán
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
3/21/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Tepatitlán51%
×Draw26%
Venados FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tepatitlán
1.54
Venados FC
0.95

Tepatitlán creates 62% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 129 away

creates per match

Tepatitlán
1.51
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Tepatitlán
0.92
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Tepatitlán+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tepatitlán ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tepatitlán or draw
77%
Tepatitlán or Venados FC
74%
Draw or Venados FC
49%

Winning margin

Tepatitlán wins by 2+
26%
Venados FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tepatitlán 1+ goals
79%
Tepatitlán 2+ goals
45%
Tepatitlán 3+ goals
20%
Venados FC 1+ goals
61%
Venados FC 2+ goals
25%
Venados FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tepatitlán (draw refunded)
69%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tepatitlán at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.92 · 105 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tepatitlán attack 1.51 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Tepatitlán defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tepatitlán scores more
51%
level
26%
Venados FC scores more
23%

Tepatitlán at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tepatitlán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tepatitlán vs Venados FC

Tepatitlán beat Venados FC 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 21, 2026.