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Venados FC vs Raya2 — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Venados FC
Venados FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Raya2
Raya2
8/18/2021Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 4Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Venados FC46%
×Draw27%
Raya227%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venados FC
1.42
Raya2
1.01

Venados FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 34 away

creates per match

Venados FC
1.63
Raya2
0.94

allows per match

Venados FC
1.08
Raya2
1.21

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par
Raya2+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Raya2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw
73%
Venados FC or Raya2
73%
Draw or Raya2
54%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+
23%
Raya2 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals
76%
Venados FC 2+ goals
41%
Venados FC 3+ goals
17%
Raya2 1+ goals
64%
Raya2 2+ goals
27%
Raya2 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)
63%
Raya2 (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Raya2 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Raya2 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.42

Raya2 attack 0.94 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Venados FC scores more
46%
level
27%
Raya2 scores more
27%

Venados FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Expansión MX: Venados FC 1–1 Raya2

Venados FC and Raya2 drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero in Mérida.