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Raya2 vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Raya2
Raya2
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Venados FC
Venados FC
3/3/2022Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 10Estadio BBVA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Raya243%
×Draw28%
Venados FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raya2
1.31
Venados FC
1.04

Raya2 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 129 away

creates per match

Raya2
1.03
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Raya2
1.11
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Raya2+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raya2 ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Raya2 or draw
70%
Raya2 or Venados FC
72%
Draw or Venados FC
57%

Winning margin

Raya2 wins by 2+
20%
Venados FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Raya2 1+ goals
73%
Raya2 2+ goals
38%
Raya2 3+ goals
14%
Venados FC 1+ goals
65%
Venados FC 2+ goals
28%
Venados FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Raya2 (draw refunded)
59%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raya2 at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raya2 attack 1.03 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Raya2 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Raya2 scores more
43%
level
28%
Venados FC scores more
30%

Raya2 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Raya2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raya2 vs Venados FC

Raya2 and Venados FC drew 3-3 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 3, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe.