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Venados FC vs Mineros de Zacatecas — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Venados FC
Venados FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
3/29/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 12Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Venados FC47%
×Draw25%
Mineros de Zacatecas28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venados FC
1.58
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.16

Venados FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 136 away

creates per match

Venados FC
1.63
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.24

allows per match

Venados FC
1.08
Mineros de Zacatecas
1.53

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par
Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Mineros de Zacatecas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw
72%
Venados FC or Mineros de Zacatecas
75%
Draw or Mineros de Zacatecas
53%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+
24%
Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals
79%
Venados FC 2+ goals
47%
Venados FC 3+ goals
21%
Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
69%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
32%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)
63%
Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Mineros de Zacatecas away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.24 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Venados FC scores more
47%
level
25%
Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
28%

Venados FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Venados FC vs Mineros de Zacatecas

Venados FC beat Mineros de Zacatecas 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero in Mérida.