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Mineros de Zacatecas vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Mineros de Zacatecas
Mineros de Zacatecas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
2/28/2026Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 8Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Mineros de Zacatecas53%
×Draw24%
Venados FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.67
Venados FC
1.02

Mineros de Zacatecas creates 64% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 129 away

creates per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.75
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Mineros de Zacatecas
1.07
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Mineros de Zacatecas+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mineros de Zacatecas ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mineros de Zacatecas or draw
77%
Mineros de Zacatecas or Venados FC
76%
Draw or Venados FC
47%

Winning margin

Mineros de Zacatecas wins by 2+
28%
Venados FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mineros de Zacatecas 1+ goals
81%
Mineros de Zacatecas 2+ goals
50%
Mineros de Zacatecas 3+ goals
23%
Venados FC 1+ goals
64%
Venados FC 2+ goals
27%
Venados FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mineros de Zacatecas (draw refunded)
69%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mineros de Zacatecas at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.07 · 138 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mineros de Zacatecas attack 1.75 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.67

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Mineros de Zacatecas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mineros de Zacatecas scores more
53%
level
24%
Venados FC scores more
23%

Mineros de Zacatecas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mineros de Zacatecas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mineros de Zacatecas vs Venados FC

Mineros de Zacatecas beat Venados FC 2-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 28, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba in Zacatecas.