Venados FC 4–4 Dorados: Result & Stats

Venados FC

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Dorados

1/25/2026

Liga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 3Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

Venados FC53%

×Draw24%

Dorados23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Venados FCExpected goals in this matchDorados

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.03

Venados FC

1.71

Dorados

1.03

Venados FC creates 66% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 122 away

1.63

creates per match

0.98

1.08

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Venados FC

1.63

Dorados

0.98

allows per match

Venados FC

1.08

Dorados

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par

Dorados+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

Dorados →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw

77%

Venados FC or Dorados

76%

Draw or Dorados

47%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+

29%

Dorados wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals

82%

Venados FC 2+ goals

51%

Venados FC 3+ goals

24%

Dorados 1+ goals

64%

Dorados 2+ goals

28%

Dorados 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)

70%

Dorados (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Dorados away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.80 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + Dorados defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dorados attack 0.98 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Venados FC scores more

53%

level

24%

Dorados scores more

23%

Venados FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff