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Dorados vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Dorados
Dorados
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
8/17/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 3Estadio Dorados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Dorados46%
×Draw26%
Venados FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dorados
1.50
Venados FC
1.10

Dorados creates 36% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 129 away

creates per match

Dorados
1.41
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

Dorados
1.23
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

Dorados+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dorados ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dorados or draw
72%
Dorados or Venados FC
74%
Draw or Venados FC
54%

Winning margin

Dorados wins by 2+
23%
Venados FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Dorados 1+ goals
78%
Dorados 2+ goals
44%
Dorados 3+ goals
19%
Venados FC 1+ goals
67%
Venados FC 2+ goals
30%
Venados FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dorados (draw refunded)
63%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dorados at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.23 · 125 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dorados attack 1.41 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Venados FC attack 0.98 + Dorados defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dorados scores more
46%
level
26%
Venados FC scores more
28%

Dorados at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dorados will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dorados vs Venados FC

Dorados beat Venados FC 1-0 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 17, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Dorados.