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Venados FC vs CA La Paz — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

Venados FC
Venados FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CA La Paz
CA La Paz
2/8/2025Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Clausura - 5Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Venados FC57%
×Draw22%
CA La Paz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Venados FC
1.95
CA La Paz
1.08

Venados FC creates 81% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 64 away

creates per match

Venados FC
1.63
CA La Paz
1.09

allows per match

Venados FC
1.08
CA La Paz
2.28

finishing

Venados FC+0.00on par
CA La Paz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Venados FC ↓

CA La Paz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Venados FC or draw
79%
Venados FC or CA La Paz
78%
Draw or CA La Paz
43%

Winning margin

Venados FC wins by 2+
34%
CA La Paz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Venados FC 1+ goals
86%
Venados FC 2+ goals
58%
Venados FC 3+ goals
31%
CA La Paz 1+ goals
66%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
29%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Venados FC (draw refunded)
74%
CA La Paz (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Venados FC at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

CA La Paz away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Venados FC attack 1.63 + CA La Paz defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.95

CA La Paz attack 1.09 + Venados FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Venados FC scores more
57%
level
22%
CA La Paz scores more
21%

Venados FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Venados FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Venados FC vs CA La Paz

Venados FC beat CA La Paz 2-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on February 8, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Carlos Iturralde Rivero in Mérida.