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CA La Paz vs Venados FC — Liga de Expansión MX 2018

CA La Paz
CA La Paz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Venados FC
Venados FC
8/24/2024Liga de Expansión MXLiga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 5Estadio Guaycura

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

CA La Paz49%
×Draw24%
Venados FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CA La Paz
1.68
Venados FC
1.19

CA La Paz creates 41% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 129 away

creates per match

CA La Paz
1.78
Venados FC
0.98

allows per match

CA La Paz
1.41
Venados FC
1.58

finishing

CA La Paz+0.00on par
Venados FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CA La Paz ↓

Venados FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

CA La Paz or draw
73%
CA La Paz or Venados FC
76%
Draw or Venados FC
51%

Winning margin

CA La Paz wins by 2+
26%
Venados FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

CA La Paz 1+ goals
81%
CA La Paz 2+ goals
50%
CA La Paz 3+ goals
24%
Venados FC 1+ goals
70%
Venados FC 2+ goals
33%
Venados FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CA La Paz (draw refunded)
64%
Venados FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CA La Paz at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Venados FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CA La Paz attack 1.78 + Venados FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.68

Venados FC attack 0.98 + CA La Paz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

CA La Paz scores more
49%
level
24%
Venados FC scores more
27%

CA La Paz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CA La Paz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CA La Paz vs Venados FC

CA La Paz and Venados FC drew 1-1 in Liga de Expansión MX on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Guaycura in La Paz.