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Velo Clube U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
D. Ramos 90+7' (pen)
5/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Benito Agnelo Castellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Velo Clube U2032%
×Draw25%
Ferroviária U2042%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Velo Clube U20
1.25
Ferroviária U20
1.48

Ferroviária U20 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Velo Clube U20
1.42
Ferroviária U20
1.70

allows per match

Velo Clube U20
1.26
Ferroviária U20
1.09

finishing

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par
Ferroviária U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Velo Clube U20 ↓

Ferroviária U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Velo Clube U20 or draw
58%
Velo Clube U20 or Ferroviária U20
75%
Draw or Ferroviária U20
68%

Winning margin

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
14%
Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
71%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
36%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
13%
Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
77%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
43%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
43%
Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Velo Clube U20 at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Ferroviária U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Velo Clube U20 attack 1.42 + Ferroviária U20 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ferroviária U20 attack 1.70 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Velo Clube U20 scores more
32%
level
25%
Ferroviária U20 scores more
42%

Ferroviária U20 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+7'
D. RamosPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Velo Clube U20 vs Ferroviária U20

Velo Clube U20 beat Ferroviária U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 10, 2024.

Goals: D. Ramos (90+7' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Benito Agnelo Castellano in Rio Claro, São Paulo.