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Ferroviária U20 vs Velo Clube U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Ferroviária U20
Ferroviária U20
FT
0 – 1
Velo Clube U20
Velo Clube U20
6/14/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Dr. Hudson Buck Pereira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Ferroviária U2058%
×Draw23%
Velo Clube U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferroviária U20
1.80
Velo Clube U20
0.92

Ferroviária U20 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

Ferroviária U20
2.20
Velo Clube U20
0.95

allows per match

Ferroviária U20
0.88
Velo Clube U20
1.40

finishing

Ferroviária U20+0.00on par
Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 51Under: 4951%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 50Yes: 5050%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviária U20 ↓

Velo Clube U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ferroviária U20 or draw
81%
Ferroviária U20 or Velo Clube U20
77%
Draw or Velo Clube U20
42%

Winning margin

Ferroviária U20 wins by 2+
33%
Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ferroviária U20 1+ goals
83%
Ferroviária U20 2+ goals
54%
Ferroviária U20 3+ goals
27%
Velo Clube U20 1+ goals
60%
Velo Clube U20 2+ goals
23%
Velo Clube U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ferroviária U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviária U20 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.88 · 25 matches

Velo Clube U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviária U20 attack 2.20 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.80

Velo Clube U20 attack 0.95 + Ferroviária U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ferroviária U20 scores more
58%
level
23%
Velo Clube U20 scores more
19%

Ferroviária U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ferroviária U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferroviária U20 vs Velo Clube U20

Velo Clube U20 beat Ferroviária U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on June 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Hudson Buck Pereira in Matão, São Paulo.