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Veľké Revištia vs Tatran Prešov — 3. liga - East 2020

Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
CANC
13:30
Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
4/4/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 19Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Veľké Revištia21%
×Draw20%
Tatran Prešov60%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Veľké Revištia
1.30
Tatran Prešov
2.32

Tatran Prešov creates 78% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 23 away

creates per match

Veľké Revištia
1.43
Tatran Prešov
2.78

allows per match

Veľké Revištia
1.86
Tatran Prešov
1.17

finishing

Veľké Revištia+0.00on par
Tatran Prešov+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Veľké Revištia ↓

Tatran Prešov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Veľké Revištia or draw
40%
Veľké Revištia or Tatran Prešov
80%
Draw or Tatran Prešov
79%

Winning margin

Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
8%
Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
73%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
37%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
14%
Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
90%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
67%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
26%
Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Veľké Revištia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Tatran Prešov away — creates 2.78, concedes 1.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Veľké Revištia attack 1.43 + Tatran Prešov defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tatran Prešov attack 2.78 + Veľké Revištia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Veľké Revištia scores more
21%
level
20%
Tatran Prešov scores more
60%

Tatran Prešov at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veľké Revištia face Tatran Prešov (3. liga - East)

3. liga - East returns with Veľké Revištia hosting Tatran Prešov. Match starts April 4, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Veľké Revištia host Tatran Prešov at Futbalový štadión MFK Sobrance.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.