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Tatran Prešov vs Veľké Revištia — 3. liga - East 2020

Tatran Prešov
Tatran Prešov
FT
2 – 0
Veľké Revištia
Veľké Revištia
8/15/20203. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 4Štadión Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Tatran Prešov89%
×Draw8%
Veľké Revištia3%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tatran Prešov
3.40
Veľké Revištia
0.54

Tatran Prešov creates 530% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

creates per match

Tatran Prešov
3.55
Veľké Revištia
0.63

allows per match

Tatran Prešov
0.45
Veľké Revištia
3.25

finishing

Tatran Prešov+0.00on par
Veľké Revištia+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tatran Prešov ↓

Veľké Revištia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–14%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–011%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tatran Prešov or draw
97%
Tatran Prešov or Veľké Revištia
92%
Draw or Veľké Revištia
11%

Winning margin

Tatran Prešov wins by 2+
73%
Veľké Revištia wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Tatran Prešov 1+ goals
96%
Tatran Prešov 2+ goals
84%
Tatran Prešov 3+ goals
64%
Veľké Revištia 1+ goals
42%
Veľké Revištia 2+ goals
10%
Veľké Revištia 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tatran Prešov (draw refunded)
97%
Veľké Revištia (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tatran Prešov at home — creates 3.55, concedes 0.45 · 22 matches

Veľké Revištia away — creates 0.63, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tatran Prešov attack 3.55 + Veľké Revištia defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 3.40

Veľké Revištia attack 0.63 + Tatran Prešov defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Tatran Prešov scores more
89%
level
8%
Veľké Revištia scores more
3%

Tatran Prešov at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Tatran Prešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Tatran Prešov 2–0 Veľké Revištia

Tatran Prešov beat Veľké Revištia 2-0 in 3. liga - East on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Štadión Tatran in Prešov.